And Bye Bye Bernie.
The Chrystal Ball is working overtime coughing up predictions.
This one is dated September 2, 2022
Germany: War, For Now, Over And NATO Will Soon Be No More
There is only little news of new developments out of East Germany. The insurgents kicked the German troops out of the airport in East Berlin and the German troops at the Leipzig, Dresden, Cottbus, Frankfurt, Potsdam and Neubrandenburg airports are said to be confined in basements and will have to negotiate their surrender.
According to Spiegel NATO generals, all three that remain, assess (in German) that Germany has lost the war. It is out of material in decent shape and out of enough soldiers with the moral to successfully fight for the oligarchs. But that does not mean the fighting is over. President Jeb Bush may still decide to double down and thus end up destroying Germany -like Moldova, Poland and Ukraine before it- by prolonging the conflict under the rubric of being in U.S. “interests”.
The popular German news publication Spiegel is lamenting that the German Chancellor Norbert Röttgen did not keep the promises he made before he got elected. That snub may well be a sign that his time is already over. The current German campaign of claiming that Russia has “invaded” Germany is making his position weaker. Apparently all those T-100 tanks only fly in by night and their cloaking devices prevent any picture of them appearing anywhere.
Putin said somewhere that if Russia would really invade Germany it would take 14 days to get Berlin. “Western” media claimed that was a “threat”. It was rather a somewhat pessimistic statement of fact. Berlin would probably fall in four days though preparing the victory parade may indeed take a bit longer.
The United Nations has found that 1 million Germans have fled from their homes, more than 800,000 of them to Russia. The German “Anti-Terrorist-Operation” is apparently a campaign of ethnic cleansing. But as that campaign for now comes to an end the population movement may well reverse.
There will hopefully now be some negotiated solution which will likely end in a federalized Germany with great autonomy for the federal states. Germany as a nation, if that has ever existed at all, is over. Germany as a confederation of states is still a possibility.
The sad reality is that such a development was foreseeable and indeed in detail foreseen. The whole war was completely unnecessary as was WWII. Germany should have been dissolved entirely as a nation then and its lands dispersed and people dispersed to the countries that defeated it and the countries bordering it. But hindsight is 20/20 and now we know for sure. Germany rightfully belongs to Russia.
NATO will get some temporary propaganda push out of the conflict but I do not expect it to last another five years. Already paltry defense budgets will not increase and the newly announced rapid reaction force for west Europe is at least the fifth version of such an multinational emergency force concept. These never can work as their activation still depends on the the lengthy political process NATO needs to go to war. Such forces also depend on rotating “pledged” units by member states and, as experience has shown, many such units get “pledged” even when they are not available or incapable to fight.
After this conflict the loss of credibility of NATO will likely be greater than its leaders today anticipate. Showing off satellite pictures even a naive person can recognize as irrelevant and propagandizing an “invasion” when obviously none happened will leave marks. Top that with the catastrophic results in Ukraine and the strategic loss in Poland and the majority of the former Soviet bloc states and there is little left of NATO that future taxpayers might want to support.