Chrystal Ball Persuasion

Every now and then at this blog we’ll consult the Crystal Ball for some forward guidance. This is one of those times, and when we do consult the forthcoming orb, it’s persuasive and instructive but maybe not always foolproof. However, before we proceed to the latest Crystal Ball prognostication, a set-up for this post is in order.

This blog post is prompted by the author and sole-proprietor (or at least we believe he’s the sole proprietor) of Moon of Alabama blog, b which apparently is shorthand for Bernhard (German sausage fingers prefer to type as little as possible).

Bernhard (or b if you prefer — it is also rumored Bernie is a Justin Bieber fan so the b could be in commemoration of his idle) has made it emphatically clear in this post that he believes, unequivocally and beyond the shadow of a doubt, that Russia has not invaded Ukraine and goes a step further and claims the Ukraine government in Kiev is lying about a Russian invasion and so too are the Western media organizations that have picked up and disseminated this story. Bernie says the following per his link:

Zero proof – indeed. I have absolutely no doubt that Russian volunteers are fighting on the insurgency side. I have no doubt that some ammunition is coming from Russia. But judging from pictures of equipment and ammunition the insurgents use nearly all of it seems to be the same Soviet era stuff the Ukrainian army is using. I have yet to see and big updated Russian equipment in their hands. The big Russian invasion the Ukrainian government claims is very unlikely to have happened.

I’ll give Bernie credit in that his wording is quite clever as is noted by the bolded part of that quote. If you read his entire blog post, he’s emphatic that a Russian invasion is bollocks, but he covers himself with plausible deniability with that ever-so-subtle bolded part. But it’s not a cover, Bernie, so don’t be a coward. Say you don’t believe it. Say emphatically without reservation or caveat that there is no Russian invasion. But Bernie won’t do that because when he’s called on it later, he’ll go back and say “I said ‘very unlikely’.” Sorry Bernie. No. You were, you are, you have been carrying water for your hero Putin and Putin says there is no invasion and your post is a defense of that lie.

Why is it a lie? Because per your quote, you even admit the extent of Russian involvement and your only quibble is what constitutes an invasion. I think we need to jettison Clausewitz and replace him with Holefield so we can come up with some new principles and philosophies to explain modern warfare. Modern-day invasions are not what they used to be. What Bernie has described is a de facto invasion and Bernie has proven it yet won’t accept it. Of course, Bernie can always pull a Bill Clinton and argue that it depends on what the definition of IS (haha — Men In Black) is. And that’s precisely what the likes of Bernie have done, do and will do again and again. Why? Because they’re propagandists and propagandists aren’t concerned with integrity and principles. They’re only concerned with spreading the message — the Gospel — in this case according to Putin rather than Matthew, Mark, Luke, John or Muhammad.

Anyhow, I felt compelled to respond to Bernie. I know, I know, it’s not like me to chime in like that, but I went against my nature and better judgement and challenged Bernie’s assessment as follows:

Hypothetically speaking, what if the proof does come — what would be your response then? If it’s more rationalizing and justification for Putin’s obvious aggression, then why even argue this point right now?

It’s obvious Ukraine is being hung out to dry by The West. Perhaps this was the reason for Obama being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize prematurely. It was preemptive in anticipation of this moment. It was granted to Obama knowing he had agreed to step aside and let Putin expand whilst putting on a good rhetorical defense for show.

If so, the innuendo by some that Obama is a Communist may well be founded. So too for a handful of the leadership of the European Union and the administration of NATO. The Communists have been playing dead for 25 years whilst they’ve been hollowing out The West in a bloodless coup.

The West has fed Ukraine to the Russian bear. The West is now The East, effectively. There is no longer any refuge. Freedom is lost, and once you lose it, it’s a bitch and near impossible to get back.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Aug 28, 2014 8:34:46 AM | 1

The reason for the question is because these fools keep changing the goal posts. They’ll get you to argue whether it’s an invasion or not, and once you’ve exhausted yourself arguing that and you’re ultimately proven correct, they just shrug their shoulders and say “so, it’s an invasion. Russia has to defend itself from The West who wants to surround it and strangle it out of existence.” Of course, a commentator, as I knew one would, came along and proved me correct. Here’s what this troll had to say, and keep in mind Bernie is every bit a troll as any anonymous commentator on the internet. His blog’s comment section is teeming with trolls so it’s ironic he labels me one. Not that I mind. So, I’m a troll. Bernie’s a troll and a douchebag and he needs to clean his teeth like a good American.

Seems NATO really miscalculated when they started this coup in Kiev. Now they’re shitting bricks at the thought of Russian troops getting involved.

This war may very well end up in one major EU capital. Again, Europeans dying for America’s empire dreams. Nice :^)

Posted by: Zico | Aug 28, 2014 11:25:10 AM | 23

To which I responded:

This comment is the reason for the question in my opening comment. This comment gives Putin’s Russia carte blanche to do whatever it will without responsibility or accountability. So even if it proves to be true and Putin is moving military columns across the border into Ukraine the excuse then will be “well, so what?”

It will always be The West’s, and America’s fault, and by virtue of that Putin, if he wished, at least in the eyes of commentators like this, could roll across Europe leaving blood-drenched and charred soil in his wake and it would always be the fault of The West and America.

Posted by: Cold N. Holefield | Aug 28, 2014 11:35:47 AM | 25

Considering all of that, I got to thinking about the moving goal posts and what the future might hold. What would the apologists be apologizing for several years from now considering the trajectory of events thus far? Pursuant to that, I consulted the Crystal Ball and it spit out the following:

President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed Polarossiya militia.

It is clear the militia has achieved a major success in intercepting Warsaw’s military operation, which represents a grave danger to the populations of Upper Silesia and Kashubia and which has already led to the loss of many lives among peaceful residents.

As a result of the militia’s actions, a large number of Polish service members who did not participate in the military operation of their own volition but while following orders have been surrounded.

I call on the militia groups to open a humanitarian corridor for Polish service members who have been surrounded, so as to avoid any needless loss of life, giving them the opportunity to leave the combat area unimpeded and reunite with their families, to return them to their mothers, wives and children, and to quickly provide medical assistance to those who were injured in the course of the military operation.

For its part, the Russian side is ready and willing to provide humanitarian aid to the people of Upper Silesia and Kashubia, who have been affected by this humanitarian catastrophe.

I once again call on the Polish authorities to immediately stop military actions, cease fire, sit down at the negotiating table with Upper Silesian and Kashubian representatives and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively via peaceful means.

August 29, 2017, 01:10


10 thoughts on “Chrystal Ball Persuasion

  1. I have not yet read the article, but will, I promise you, Catcher. I just wanted you to know there is someone in this world whose mind reminds me of yours. I don’t mean his politcial beliefs. I mean the actual workings of the mind. Or rather, the transcendental level upon which the mind works.

    Here is a link:

    Now I will read your article. I hope it is not too offensively anti-Novorossiya 😉

    • The comment you left at that link was excellent. I couldn’t agree more, and if you read my tagline, it supports your analysis.

      It’s not that I’m anti-Novorossiya, it’s that I don’t recognize and accept Putin’s simulacrum (his winding road and its jagged edges and low shoulders). If we want to get technical about that physical location (Eastern Ukraine) the Tatars and the Kulacs, or their descendants, have as much or more of a claim to it than Putin’s Russia. So, I won’t travel Putin’s road — I won’t intellectually exist in his simulacrum — in the middle or the fanatical edges. I’m cross country where there are no roads and never will be.

  2. Also Kate, I have to say, I don’t consider my thinking process to be anything like Joaquin Flores’. Joaquin is pure propaganda (versus transcendental) parroting the talking points and memes of The Kremlin. That link you provided, the meat of the article, is not independent, objective critical thought in any way. The purpose of that blog and that article is to help define the edges of the Simulacrum — to help pave that road and its shoulders with the binary result of two lanes juxtaposed in opposite directions.

    I stand alone in my thinking, if you haven’t noticed. Not one single person agrees with a thing I say — ever. But as you know, I’m fine with that because of what you said in that comment at that propagandistic blog. Most, meaning 99.9%, of the readers and commentators of what constitutes news on the internet are perfect products of this binary Simulacrum, and as such they cannot identify or identify with someone who is off-road. They will jump through hoops to make the very few of us fit in some way.

    Not so with Joaquin Flores — he has plenty of people who agree with him, and by definition, for that reason, we know he is of and part of the binary Simulacrum.

    Not to mention, what’s up with the name Joaquin Flores? Seriously? Do a search on that name. It’s not slavic or Eurasian in origin, so what gives? If this joker wants an anonymous cover and obviously doesn’t want to use his real name, he could be a bit more clever than choosing a common Hispanic name of someone who believes he’s the apostle of Jesus Christ.

    Also, I thought the lyrics from the song Crystal Blue Persuasion in this thread were highly appropriate considering that link you provided. The author could have saved all that typing and just copy & pasted the lyrics as an example of what he purports Putin is doing in “Greater Russia.” Here they are in case you just brushed them over as most have obviously done when reading my blog post.

    Keep in mind, I’m an equal opportunity critic. Just because I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time on this blog criticizing Putin’s Russia doesn’t mean I embrace the converse in the Simulacrum. I don’t, but those within the Simulacrum, prisoners and players within it, will try to force me into that bind and set me up as a strawman in order to further perpetuate the false reality of the Simulacrum.

    Not to mention, no tattoos for me. This tattooed imbecile is just that — an imbecile. Anyone who has a tattoo is automatically an imbecile imo and they can never be anything but a prisoner of their own simulacrum devices. Here’s a YouTube of this moron. Listen to it closely and then compare it to the writing at that blog to which you linked. The same person in that video is not the person writing that blog post. It’s a team. It’s an intelligence organization, and as we know, the duty of intelligence organizations is to maintain the boundaries of, and order/disorder within, the Simulacrum.


    Look over yonder
    What do you see?
    The sun is a-risin’
    Most definitely
    A new day is comin’, whoo-hoo
    People are changin’
    Ain’t it beautiful, whoo-hoo
    Crystal blue persuasion

    Better get ready
    Gonna see the light
    Love, love is the answer, whoo-hoo
    And that’s all right
    So don’t you give up now, whoo-hoo
    It’s so easy to find
    Just look to your soul (Look to your soul)
    And open your mind

    Crystal blue persuasion
    It’s a new vibration
    Crystal blue persuasion
    Blue persuasion

    Maybe tomorrow
    When he looks down
    On every green field, whoo-hoo
    And every town
    All of his children
    In every nation
    There’ll be peace and good
    Crystal blue persuasion

    Crystal blue persuasion, aha
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha (Oh)
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha
    Crystal blue persuasion, aha

  3. Regarding Putin’s aggression, you say, “Why is it a lie? Because per your quote, you even admit the extent of Russian involvement and your only quibble is what constitutes an invasion.”

    Yet on what, Catcher, do you base your assumption that Russia is involved in Ukraine? The Western media? And how are you sure they don’t lie?

    Below, I quote from an interview with Alexey Mozgovoy, commander of the Lugansk “Ghost” brigade. I ask you, is Mozgovoy lying? Is he uninformed? Is he confused? Engaged in wishful thinking? Can you tell the difference? If so, how?

    Link to the full interview:


    “Q: Does Russia aid you?

    A: Of course. They send us the humanitarian aid, mostly. We don’t really
    need anything more from Russia. Because, certain circles are waiting
    for Russia to get involved into the whole affair. To stain Russia with
    the blood, poured by Kiev. I don’t want that. Russia is my second home.

    Q: Are you worried that Russia might “surrender” Novorossia? What will happen if Putin reaches an agreement with Poroshenko?

    A: Considering that I oppose the intervention of Moscow, I don’t really
    anticipate it. And Russia can’t “surrender” anyone. This is our internal
    affair, the affair of the citizens of Novorossia.”

    He appears to be saying Russia has very little involvement after all, in this excerpt and at other points in the interview.

    What do you make of it?

    • Kate, of course the Western media lies. As I’ve said, it’s all lies, and from all the lies we must try to make some sense of it all. The Western media lies and so too does the Russian media, it’s just that the Western media lies better, but it’s been getting worse. Neither lie for the right reason(s).

      I don’t pay any attention to Russian media. There are no degrees of separation between it and the Kremlin, so it is for certain a propaganda mouthpiece of the Russian Federation. There are still degrees of separation between Washington DC and the Western media, albeit those degrees are now only a few due to Western media consolidation over the past several decades.

      Let’s face it, kate, without a media of some sort, we have no earthly clue that anything is going on in other places around the world until or unless we read a book by some traveling novelist who has documented some of his/her experiences in far-off places — and even then, it’s still lies to a certain extent because that author’s interpretation of events is subjected to his/her biases and partial predilections.

      So when it comes to Ukraine we’re left grasping for straws to decipher what’s going on. Certainly we know something’s happening there, but what exactly? For that meaning we must rely on various sources, but the most important source of all is the mechanism through which all proffered evidence is filtered — our intellects. Many people don’t even have an intellect, so it’s irrelevant, but for those who do, and have chosen to take their observation deck cross country where there are no roads, that intellect is our most valuable tool. It calls for intuition as well as deductive reasoning. It’s our compass to help us navigate the abyss of existence, otherwise, we’re just feathers (or dust) randomly floating in the wind ultimately landing at, or on, a destination not of our choosing. Maybe we’re that anyway, and we’re just deluding ourselves in thinking we have some control over the navigation.

      A couple of songs come to mind to underscore my points. Audio and visual aren’t used nearly enough to emphasize ideas and notions in journalism — that’s why I make an effort to permeate my blog posts and comments with both.

    • Is Mozgovoy lying?

      You tell me, but when and if you do, also tell me who’s more likely to lie? Who’s intuition is more likely to be correct? Mozgovoy’s or Valetina Melnikova’s. Read my next post for clarification on who and what Melnikova is. Here’s a quote from her, a brave Russian woman, to get you started.

      Valentina Melnikova, who leads the Soldiers’ Mothers Committee, told the Daily Beast she was “personally humiliated as a citizen of the Russian Federation by our commander-in-chief’s pure, direct crime.” She said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “violating not only international laws, not only the Geneva Convention, [he] also is breaking Russian Federation law about defense. And as for the [Russian airborne commander], we should be too disgusted to even mention his name. He forces his servicemen to fight in a foreign state, Ukraine, illegally, while mothers receive coffins with their sons, anonymously.”

      I’m going to assume kate, since your screen name is a female name, you are a female? Is this correct? If so, how could you betray another female especially since she’s Russian and she literally has “skin in the game” as Col. Mustard is so fond of saying? Do you dispute her, kate? Would you like to see happen to her what happened to this woman when she was falsely accused of spotting for the Ukrainian military in Eastern Ukraine?

      Just last week a terrorist leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, claimed that Russian soldiers were volunteers on vacation. Is he lying? Yes, I think he is, but only in that the soldiers are not on holiday, they are there at Moscow’s behest per Putin’s orders. Proof? I don’t need any when you’re painting, and murdering, by numbers. The dots easily connect.

      • You need to do more research, Catcher, and really get to the heart of the matter. Again I suggest you do a Twitter Advanced Search, entering under “Any of these words” the string:

        Donetsk Lugansk Luhansk Mariupol Slavyansk Slovyansk Slaviansk Novorossiya Novorossia Novorussia Donbass Donbas #NAF

        Select the language “English” and hit “Search”. When the tweets come up, click “ALL” at the top of the screen. Then study the screen for 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or 300 hours like I have, clicking on a lot of the links and viewing the conversations. Do this at various times of day, but especially when people are awake in Ukraine. Once you’ve reached the point where you have a feel for where all of these tweets are coming from, get back to me.

        This ought to broaden your road.

      • Then study the screen for 20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or 300 hours like I have, clicking on a lot of the links and viewing the conversations.

        Wouldn’t it be just as effective to study Dubya’s painting of Putin for “20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or 300 hours” to divine the soul of Putin?

        From the Daily Racing Rag — a real gas of a publication.



        This ought to broaden your road.

        Is broadening my road similar to updating my memes? I think you mean it like PaliP, just different verbiage.

        Anyway, you need to make up your mind — either we’re going cross-country and thus off-road, or we’re On The Road Again.

        No more roads, kate. I’m done with them. I’ve been there, done that. I’ve been on all kinds of roads. They’re designed to destroy your intellect and psyche. You of all people should know this.

        If you’re on the road long enough, kate, you begin to believe it is the reality. Then you’re surely lost, albeit life’s much simpler and less complicated that way. Let Twitter show you the way. In studying the road, you must not become part of it and one with it. It will absorb you if you look at it for too long. You can’t pretend it’s not there, but that doesn’t mean you have to travel it. Perhaps one day the road will expand far and wide enough that there is no off-road, but until then, never wish that road upon any freethinker.

  4. You say, “Wouldn’t it be just as effective to study Dubya’s painting of Putin for ’20, 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or 300 hours’ to divine the soul of Putin?”

    No, it would be incomparably less effective. The contributions to Twitter come from thousands of people, many of them eyewitnesses to the action. These people offer their own vast array of opinions, while posting links to nearly every prominent news source in the English language. There can be no source of information on Donbass more varied. It is hard to miss anything with this medium.

    Admittedly, Twitter takes patience. The majority of tweets are propaganda or groundless speculation, but they represent all sides of the picture, from reactionary Western propaganda to entrenched militaristic support of historical Russia. On the other hand, many tweets provide links to critical information posted by the OSCE and the NAF militia, as well as to pro-Western reporters, what few of them are in Ukraine, giving details about ground operations, including maps and artillary power. Twitter also offers links to numerous websites with illuminating articles and essays, including now and then yours, Catcher, which is where I first found you, and to such notable figures as Paul Craig Roberts and Ron Paul. Studying Twitter is extremely fruitful, if carried out with patience over a period of time.

    You referred to the pro-Novorossiya defense forces as “terrorists”. You must not realize how inappropriate this sounds. Terrorists are by definition those who deliberately harm civilians with the intent of creating terror for strategic ends, typically political or religious. There is little or no evidence the separatists have deliberately harmed civilians to create terror. On the other hand, there is a lot of evidence the Kiev government has harmed civilians to create terror, the ostensible end being to intimidate the separatists into surrender.

    You say, “let Twitter show you the way.” You need to understand that “Twitter” is merely a vast set of links to every imaginable news source on the internet, from CNN and BBC to the OSCE to and Vineyard of the Saker. Twitter in and of itself is nothing. It serves as a conduit. Accusing one of being “influenced” by Twitter is as absurd as saying one is influenced by the telephone. What one is influenced by is the information transmitted via the medium.

    You have one of the most brilliant minds I’ve ever encountered on the internet, Catcher, which is why I return to your site. But you seem uneducated on the subject of Ukraine. I suggested Twitter because I would be fascinated to know what a mind such as yours could do with real content on the issue. I am sorry you are unwilling to give my method a chance

    Keep at it, Catcher. No hard feelings 🙂

  5. Alright, I did as you suggested — an advanced search using the string you provided and this is one of the first Tweet threads I came across. It pretty much supports my analysis.

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