Heads Russia Wins, Tails Ukraine Loses

It appears Russia is playing both sides in this Ukrainian crisis and civil war. Anti-American, pro-Russian blog venues like The Vineyard of the Saker and Moon of Alabama, if they concede anything in this debate, will sometimes concede, ever so reluctantly, that the Ukrainian civil war is a proxy war with the West supporting the government in Kiev and Russia supporting the pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine. The problem with this is that even though The West is providing SOME assistance to Kiev, it is in no way equivalent to the assistance provided by Moscow both to the Eastern Ukrainian pro-Russian separatists and, believe it or not, to Kiev. Of course, the latter is not assistance as we know it — but rather sabotage. As the following two articles will reveal, if the Ukrainian civil war is a proxy war, both sides are fighting for Moscow, and Moscow’s intention in pitting Ukrainians against Ukrainians is to destabilize Ukraine to the point it can be broken up into manageable mafia-run vassal statelets. Considering The West’s lackluster response to this, one has to wonder, is it good with Russia’s plan? I think it may be and all the hot air reported in the press is just cover for Business As Usual.

The following article from The Daily Beast details how The West, namely America, has been reluctant to provide suitable military support to Kiev. If it hadn’t been so reluctant and stingy, the recent spate of downed Ukrainian jets could have been avoided, and who knows, perhaps too Flight 17 could have been avoided. Is Kiev an ally, or not? If so, why not give it what it needs to fight the Russian-backed Eastern Ukrainian separatists? There are no doubt….….many reasons, one of which I alluded to above, but even without getting all conspiratorial, on the surface (to air?) it’s much more complicated than providing military equipment and training. Before I elaborate, here’s The Daily Beast article by Eli Lake who provides great coverage and information by the way:

Exclusive: Ukraine Asked U.S. for Tech to Counter Russia’s Jet-Killers

Last month, Ukraine quietly asked the United States and NATO for sensitive equipment to jam the radars that Russian anti-aircraft systems use to lock their missiles on planes.

As the United States and NATO last month began to publicly acknowledge the sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft systems moving into rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev asked for gear that might be used to counter those weapons.

According to a former senior U.S. defense official who has worked closely with Ukraine’s military and a former head of state who has consulted with the government there, Kiev last month requested the radar jamming and detection equipment necessary to evade and counter the anti-aircraft systems Moscow was providing the country’s separatists.

Those anti-aircraft systems were almost certainly used to shoot down MH17, the Malaysian air passenger jet shot out of the sky last Thursday. U.S. officials have pointed the finger at Russia for providing that equipment, though no final assessment has been made of culpability for the incident.

Philip Karber, a former strategy adviser to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, has conducted detailed assessments of the country’s military since the crisis began this year. Karber returned from the Ukrainian front earlier this month. He told The Daily Beast, “I was told in June by the Ukrainians that one of their top five priorities that they had conveyed to the United States and NATO that month was to get help in electronic warfare,” which gives a military the ability to detect, spoof and jam the radars of enemy anti-aircraft missile batteries.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of the Republic of Georgia, also said that in his meetings this month with Ukraine’s leadership he was told by the country’s national security adviser, Andriy Parubiy, that Ukraine had requested technology to detect anti-aircraft systems. Saakashvili was Georgia’s president when Russia invaded two Georgian republics—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—in 2008 and has offered his views to Ukraine as they face a similar crisis today. “He told me they desperately needed electronic warfare capabilities from the Americans,” Saakashvili told The Daily Beast.
Some senior U.S. officials asked about the Ukrainian request by The Daily Beast said they were not aware of it. Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, told The Daily Beast, “The Ukrainian government has requested support, but we’re not going to detail the types of support they have requested.”
Ukraine’s request is particularly important because Western electronic warfare technology could protect its planes from Russian anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine’s current equipment is old and out of date.

“They have some jamming capabilities now, but it’s all compatible with Russian systems. That means the Russians know exactly what they can do and therefore they can use alternative frequencies and do other things to offset it,” Karber said.

Karber and other experts interviewed by The Daily Beast said that even if the White House had agreed immediately to send Kiev specialized planes or ground based jammers and radar detection systems, the equipment would not have arrived in time to protect MH17 or the other Ukrainian aircraft that rebels appear to have shot down since March.

A Ukrainian government timeline seen by The Daily Beast lists 21 incidents when separatists have fired on its aircraft in the sky since March. Ten of those incidents included the mobile rocket launch system known as the man-portable air defense sytsem or MANPAD.

U.S. officials have said the MH17 was brought down by a more sophisticated system known by NATO as the SA-11. The SA-11 system that brought down MH17 was operating alone, without the support of additional radar systems, three senior U.S. intelligence officials told reporters Tuesday. Typically, such a system would be used as part of a networked grid of radars, but the separatists using the system were using only the radar they had attached to their unit, these officials said.

The limited range and detail capabilities of the radar on the SA-11 operated by the separatists contributed to the mistaken identification of the commercial airliner as a military cargo place, the officials said. The Russians gave the separatists the weapon but not the support system to use it properly.

“In theory, the United States could have given the Ukrainians some of our excess electronic warfare aircraft which would have been able to detect the radars of this missile system,” Karber said. “However, realistically this was not perceived to be a high-priority issue for the West at the time and it would have also taken time and training to get them up to speed on this.”

Nonetheless, the request illustrates how cautious the United States has been to enter Ukraine’s war with Russia and the separatist militias Moscow has lavished with support.

One U.S. defense official who spoke to The Daily Beast on condition of anonymity said any Ukrainian request for jammers and other electronic warfare technology would be met with some skepticism. “These are highly sensitive systems, we don’t trust Ukrainian military folks on this,” this official said. (The Ukrainian military is believed to be thoroughly penetrated by Russian intelligence.)

Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, the United States has been reluctant to send them sensitive military technology.

The Daily Beast obtained this week a list of equipment Ukraine requested in April that included encrypted communications gear, mine-detection vehicles, and night-vision equipment—some of which has arrived only in recent weeks.

In May, The Daily Beast reported that it took months for the United States to even send the most rudimentary gear to Ukraine like boots, uniforms, and spare tires.

In June, the Pentagon said it would be sending small teams to Ukraine to assess the military’s medium- and long-term needs. It has also stepped up some assistance, sending Ukraine non-lethal items like concertina wire, flashlights, binoculars and sleeping bags.

Rep. Michael Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee that oversees U.S. tactical air and land forces, told The Daily Beast on Sunday, “The administration has been very slow to react, both in terms of sharing information with Ukraine about what the Russians are doing, giving them technical advice on how to respond, and equipment necessary to counter what they are facing with the pro-Russian separatists.”

But after the shoot-down of MH17, the White House may begin to look at sending more sophisticated equipment to Ukraine. Karber said there were a few options available to the administration to improve Ukraine’s ability to jam and detect the anti-aircraft systems used by the country’s separatist militias.

For example, the American military has older equipment in its arsenal—aircraft due to be phased out of service—that could provide at least some warning of a surface-to-air missile being fired.

“We could remove the most sensitive material to give them a surveillance aircraft that would allow them to see the entire combat zone and would be able to detect when radars come on to either jam them or to warn other aircraft they could be targeted,” he said.

Very interesting. If you were to read only the anti-American, pro-Russian sites like the ones mentioned plus Ian Stirling Ireland Lang Simeone Celsius Welch’s blog (Q. Shtik’s new hang) like I do and work backwards, but stop at those sites and accept their messaging, you would never know any of this because they dare not mention it. The messaging at those sites is that this is a showdown between The Big Bad West and Proud, Noble & Decent Russia. But when you work backwards from these sites and keep moving and exploring, you find just how blatantly propagandistic these sites are when you challenge their biased coverage. Keep in mind, I don’t turn to the mainstream press for my news. tangledIn working backwards from anti-American alternative media sources, I may include some mainstream sources in my research, but it’s not my first choice, and often it’s not even my choice when researching and challenging the messaging at alternative media blogs.

The bolded part of The Daily Beast article is important. It provides legitimate cover for that lackluster response from The West as Putin’s Russia connivingly has its way in Ukraine. It makes sense on the surface. The West can’t trust Ukraine because Ukraine has for the entirety of its existence been tied at the hip with Russia. The intermingling is extremely difficult to unravel let alone navigate. Of course, this is what spies do best, but to unfold Ukraine would require an army of expert spies, and I’m not sure The West is up to that task nor is it even interested since it appears, as I’ve asserted in earlier posts, intelligence services, whether they be East, West, North or South, are working together to control The Masses. The following article from an interesting blog called The XX Committee lays out just how deeply penetrated Russia is in Kiev. One would be naive to assume this penetration just disintegrated with The Maidan revolt. Quite the contrary, when something like that happens, you double down, so no doubt Kiev is teeming with Russian agents embedded in all layers of government, most notably the military. Here’s what the The XX Committe article has to say:

More Evidence Russian Intelligence is Waging Special War Against Ukraine

For months it has been obvious to those who wish to see that Russian intelligence stands behind the campaign of espionage, terrorism, propaganda, and covert action (including raising and arming rebel militias), which I have termed Special War, that is being waged by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine. I’ve written about this murky matter several times. After the recent election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine’s president, the Kremlin’s efforts to terrorize and coerce its neighbor have only increased, and evidence of Russian intelligence involvement has mounted by the day.

Recently, U.S. officials have confirmed widespread rumors that the shadowy paramilitary boss Igor Girkin (AKA Strelkov), who has been a major figure in the campaign to destabilize Ukraine and serves as the defense minister of the self-proclaimed (and Moscow-backed) “Donetsk People’s Republic” in southeast Ukraine, is actually a Russian military intelligence (GRU) colonel. GRU special operators have been deeply involved in the seizure of Crimea and continuing efforts to terrorize and destabilize eastern Ukraine.

Today, in an interview with the Kyiv newspaper Den, Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, the director of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), elaborated just how large a role Russian intelligence, particularly the powerful Federal Security Service (FSB), is playing in Putin’s effort to destabilize and intimidate Kyiv into submission. Nalyvaychenko explained that the FSB stands behind Russia’s entire anti-Ukraine campaign, choosing the Kremlin’s strategy and operations, and the SBU has detained several Russian intelligence operatives in eastern Ukraine recently, including over ninety “terrorists and saboteurs,” among them thirteen Russian nationals – “mercenaries and professional intelligence officers, agents.” He said that the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s on-going Special War operations in eastern Ukraine were planned long before this spring, with the full collaboration of Ukraine’s previous government.

Although it has been widely known that, during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, the SBU was deeply penetrated by the FSB, with Russian officers actually holding positions inside Ukrainian intelligence, Nalyvaychenko stated that even he did not realize how bad the situation was until recently. There is a major hunt afoot now for pro-Kremlin agents inside the SBU since, the director explained, “from December 2013 until the end of February 2014, three groups of high-ranking FSB officers worked in the SBU. During these months, all modern arms, files, archives, everything that forms a basis for a professional intelligence service, were transferred to Simferopol” in Crimea.

The SBU has severed all ties with Russian intelligence – under Yanukovych, Ukraine’s spies functioned as an extension of the FSB – but it will be some time before this massive penetration is undone; it is no longer mysterious why so many recent Ukrainian military operations to root out separatists in the Donetsk area have fallen short of expectations, since the pro-Russian paramilitaries know they are coming. The first task at hand must be detecting and neutralizing Russian spies and provocateurs inside Ukraine’s defense and security system, and that is now underway, though it will take years to get this problem under control, given the daunting extent of Kremlin penetration.

Kyiv, finally, is also fighting back on the propaganda front, where the Russians have been highly active, and today 5 Kanal TV (which is owned by Poroshenko) showed a video, provided by the SBU, of an interview with a “terrorist” recently captured near Slovyansk. Though his face was obscured, the prisoner, said to be named Mykola Viktorovych, explained that he was recruited by the FSB to fight as a mercenary for the “Donetsk People’s Republic.” After training, he was paid an advance of 200,000 rubles (about USD 5,000), and he said the volunteers were promised bonuses of USD 300 for every Ukrainian soldier they killed and USD 1,000 for each officer. He was then given a train ticket to Luhansk and sent to war. As he stated:

I was told that there were a lot of our Russian guys here, who had been sent here earlier. They told me not to be scared. But I do not believe in this war. I condemn the Putin regime for starting this war between our peoples. Please forgive me if you can.

This story is far from over, but it is encouraging that Kyiv at last is fighting back against the FSB and Putin’s Special War. If Ukraine expects to survive, there is no choice.

Considering this damning evidence, Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance. It will be Balkanized, as I’ve stated all along, but not until there’s been a long, bloody and profitable civil war all thanks to artificially high oil prices. The West won’t save Ukraine because it’s complicit in the Balkanization plan despite the fiery rhetoric and limp finger pointing.

Considering that, I have to laugh when all the anti-American, pro-Russian blogs like Ian Stirling Ireland Lang Simeone Celsius Welch’s imply or outright assert that the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was a false flag perpetrated by The West (to mean America). Over at The Welch Committee’s blog, our friend (Not!) mfi (Mark from Ireland — the residential expert) had this to say:

markfromireland

July 23, 2014

@ oldskpetic July 23, 2014

Now nothing Australia does is on its own now, so we can reasonably speculate the he has been contacted by the US to sound him out to see if we would send forces to the Ukraine, right into rebel territory.

Not necessarily. He could simply be demonstrating extreme servility secure in the knowledge that the offer won’t be taken up. The current crop of neocons infesting the American corridors of power seem to enjoy such displays from their fellow believers in the satrapies rather more than is entirely healthy for any of the parties involved.

I would hope that the Australian high command retains enough professional integrity to point out to their civilian masters that forces from countries allied to what is now seen in Moscow as an enemy power arriving in Ukraine would be even less welcome than a turd in a swimming pool and that Moscow’s reaction would be distinctly unpleasant for everyone in its path. Obama may be ill-informed and ill-advised enough to dismiss Russia as “regional power” but when your region is the entirety of Eurasia your reach by definition is long enough to hurt “The Lucky Country”. In my experience of them Russian politicians and military people don’t subscribe to the forgive and forget school of geo-politics particularly not when it comes to the “near abroad”.

Agreed re: false flag.

mfi

mfi’s boasting about that expertise once again — with credentials that can’t be verified. So, I’ll ask once more, if anyone has information about this cretin they want to share publicly at this space, please contact me and we’ll arrange a way to do that — or we can just let him continue to lie and hold himself out as an expert while his troll support at these various blogs pop in and defer to him as an expert as part of a messaging ruse.

Also, note mfi’s “false flag” messaging. Is it just me, or is the “false flag” meme overwrought? It’s as though everything’s a false flag these days — and I mean everything — and of course, all these “false flags,” all one hundred per day, are perpetrated by America. How does America do it? Because it’s exceptional, that’s how, and these dopes who cry “false flag” at the drop of a hat are notorious American Exceptionalists, with mfi front and center.

I responded to mfi as follows. I’m copying it here in case Welch decides to overwrite or delete it as is his wont and practice when he arbitrarily determines you’re not contributing to the proper messaging.

Cold N. Holefield

July 23, 2014

In my experience of them Russian politicians and military people

Until you submit who you are and document said “experience,” you have no experience and that’s the wrong word. Opinion is the appropriate word until you provide evidence of your experience that can be validated and verified. But even then, if you did have evidence of your experience that could be verified, it would still just be your opinion, all experience aside. As such, your opinion is no better or worse than anyone else’s who reads here and/or posts. It’s just an opinion in a sea of opinions, and like all opinions, it’s disputable.

I’ll have the next Coming To America post in the series up by week’s end. That’s all for now and remember, lie well and for all the right reasons.

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6 thoughts on “Heads Russia Wins, Tails Ukraine Loses

  1. At the end of this post I said…

    I responded to mfi as follows. I’m copying it here in case Welch decides to overwrite or delete it as is his wont and practice when he arbitrarily determines you’re not contributing to the proper messaging.

    True to form, Welch deleted it. Can I read people, or what? Too funny. Oh well, it’s a good thing I anticipated it and made a record of it here. Why does Welch protect mfi? When I finally expose this mfi fraud, Welch will be complicit.

    In the meantime, thankfully I defeated Alfredo Garcia’s hero, the supercilious Q. Shtik and chased him from this space without banning him. Some hero you have there, Alfredo. You sure know how to pick them — heroes who can’t take what they dish out. Was Trujillo your hero as well?

  2. Sorry, I couldn’t read your whole article. The print is simply too small for my tired eyes.

    I am a scholarly type person trying to understand the truth of the Ukrainian conflict. I noticed you mentioned you do not base your opinions on mainstream media much at all. And that is good. The media must produce stories, and life is seldom a story. It tends to be a thousand million details, many disconnected, but with a broad overall trend. In that vein, I get most of my news from Twitter, by doing an advanced search under “any of these words” on the string

    Donetsk Lugansk Luhansk Kramatorsk Slavyansk Slovyansk Slaviansk Sloviansk Mariupol Donbas Donbass Novorossiya Novorussia Novorossia

    It is amazing the picture you can get from this search. I would be interested in your opinion of this method of gathering news. BTW, in case you don’t know, you don’t have to sign up for Twitter. Anyone can go in from Google, at least from Firefox.

    I was not really sure which “side” of the debate you are on, ie Pro-West or Pro-Russia. Maybe neither? Again, I could hardly read the print. But I got the impression you think the issue is deeper than one side vs. the other.

    Thanks for being concerned.

    • It is amazing the picture you can get from this search. I would be interested in your opinion of this method of gathering news. BTW, in case you don’t know, you don’t have to sign up for Twitter. Anyone can go in from Google, at least from Firefox.

      If you think you can glean informative value from it to help you gain a more clarified perspective and perception, have at it. Although, I will say as more tend to that medium of exchange, which is essentially short Torette-like ejaculations no matter how witty and skillfully composed, it may not be clarity that’s gained but greater obscurity and misdirection under the guise of easy, efficient, and may I dare say lazy communication.

      Blogging allows you to expand your thoughts and reasoning supported by links as part of your diligent research and investigation — at least bloggers who put that time in rather than just opining for two or three paragraphs without much thought or effort — and there are quite a few of them and they’re increasingly turning to Twitter since they’re too lazy to elaborate.

      I’ve changed the format so the font is larger and the screen wider. Let me know if it’s any better — if you’re still here. If not, oh well — I’m talking to myself — something I’m prone to do on occasion.

  3. Hey, thank you, I can read it!

    Nice of you to reply to my point about Twitter. Yea, the tweets are short, and in themselves don’t reveal much. But they contain LINKS ;)) It’s the links to articles and websites (like your own, for that matter) that make Twitter a valuable source.

    Don’t reach the wrong conclusion about MH17 too quick. Interestingly, it stands directly betweeen the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, right at the center of the hourglass where Kiev armies are trying to cut the DPR/LPR in half. Now who benefits from that, I ask you? Remember, it’s nothing but lies.

    • Don’t reach the wrong conclusion about MH17 too quick.

      This is exactly my point in my I Think I’m Going To Buk post here. I said the following to conclude the blog post, but you can read it in its entirety if you’d like.

      In conclusion, the jury’s still out for me on what happened to Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, and I suspect I will never definitively know. I’m not going to enter the politicized fray and opine what I think may or may not have happened — there are too many possibilities and not enough information to make an educated guess. It would be irresponsible speculation — something that hasn’t stopped all the other liars in this politicized debate, including CNN.

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